Friday, June 09, 2017

Unorganized thoughts on GE2017

(1) The happiest person in the country right now must be George Osborne.

(2) I didn't believe Brexit would win the referendum until that very day it won. I didn't believe Article 50 would be triggered until the very day it was. I still don't believe Brexit will actually happen (in any meaningful form) until it actually happens.

The liberal "establishment" would not just sit there and accept defeat to the so-called populism. They will fight back. They are in control of the world economy and power for so many years, there may be temporary setbacks but they would not go away easily. 

(3) Speaking of populism or anti-liberalism or anti-globalization or localism, whatever you call it... they are so short-lived. We had high hopes, but now it seems it is all gone and everything is about to return to what it was before, indeed worse from our point of view. In Hong Kong, the localism movement barely lasted a few years. In electoral terms it only began in February 2016. A defeat in September of the same year, and now everything is dead. In Britain, UKIP had its moments in 2015 and is now dead. In France, a widely Eurosceptic electorate somehow ended up choosing the most liberal candidate (he calls himself centrist, I call that extreme liberalism).

For those of us fighting against political correctness, we are now pegged back to the corner and are going to need to defend for our lives from all sides. Prepare to embrace for more "choose love" and "hope not fear" and "social justice".

(4) I have some sympathy for May. I always felt her hand was a bit forced when she had to call a general election, due to the slim majority. She cannot call it before triggering Article 50, and cannot do it much later. The police cuts, for which she was heavily criticized, were obviously made under the reign of Cameron and Osborne (again, laughing happily now).

But she made MANY misjudgments. She should not have gone all the way to the Supreme Court regarding Brexit (that will save a few months, allowing triggering Article 50 earlier and calling the GE earlier. If the GE happened before the local elections, the result may be reversed.) Then there was the NI contribution saga, then the social care reform, then of course calling the GE itself. 

The campaign is a complete disaster. She looked shaken from start to finish. For some reason, in her speeches when she wanted to sound powerful, those "Come with me..." were voiced like Darth Vader saying "... together we can rule the universe."

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